Phillips curve
The claimed trade-off between unemployment and inflation. It looked solid in the 1960s, fell apart in the 1970s, and has been argued about ever since. The expectations slider is the crux: at 0 you plot raw inflation, at 1 you plot inflation minus what it was a year ago, which is roughly the "accelerationist" version that survived the 1970s critique.
y = π_t − w × π_{t−12}, x = u_t
A scatter and a fitted line are not causation, and the relationship is unstable across decades by construction — which is the interesting part. Narrow the window and watch the slope change sign.
- Slope
- 0.00
- Correlation r
- 0.00
- Observations
- 0
- Window
- 25 years
Points of inflation per point of unemployment; the textbook curve is negative
- US CPI (all items)506 obs · through 1989-02-01
- US unemployment rate494 obs · through 1989-02-01
Everything is computed in your browser from these series. Nothing is saved, so move the sliders freely — sources and licences.