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FatNarwhal · Models
Economic models
The standard macro relationships, wired to the series we publish and left open at the back. Move a weight, change an assumption, and watch a textbook rule bend — including the places it plainly does not hold.
Taylor rule
What the policy rate "should" be, and what it actually was.
rate = r* + π + a_π (π − π*) + a_gap × okun × (u* − u)
6 parameters · 3 series
Phillips curve
Unemployment against inflation, once you choose how anchored expectations are.
y = π_t − w × π_{t−12}, x = u_t
2 parameters · 2 series
Okun's law
How much unemployment moves when growth misses potential.
Δu = −c × (g − g*)
2 parameters · 2 series
Trend projection
Extend any series forward at a growth rate you pick.
x_{t+n} = x_t × (1 + g)^n
3 parameters · 1 series