Trust & accuracy
How we aggregate odds, when to trust a spread, and what we do not do.
FN spread
For paired markets, spread is the absolute gap in percentage points between Polymarket and Kalshi yes probabilities on the pinned outcome. FN Consensus is the simple average when both sides are present.
Curated vs auto
Curated pairs are hand-verified in lib/markets/curated-pairs.ts. Trending and discovered feeds use live APIs plus ML title matching — treat dashed “possible same bet” groups as hypotheses until you confirm outcomes on each platform.
Poly-only curated rows are intentional when Kalshi has no matching open market.
Automated checks hit live Polymarket and Kalshi APIs, compare titles and spreads, and flag wide gaps or missing sides. CI runs npm run validate:curated on every pipeline build.
Last run: Jun 3, 2026, 5:24 PM · 8 OK · 9 warnings · 0 failed
- Wide spread (10pt) — verify outcome pins
- Wide spread (78pt) — verify outcome pins
- Wide spread (16pt) — verify outcome pins
- Kalshi missing (Polymarket-only pair)
- Wide spread (44pt) — verify outcome pins
- Kalshi missing (Polymarket-only pair)
- Kalshi missing (Polymarket-only pair)
- Kalshi missing (Polymarket-only pair)
- Kalshi missing (Polymarket-only pair)
Not financial advice
FatNarwhal is an information aggregator. We do not execute trades, hold funds, or operate as a broker or bookmaker. Always verify contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi before placing real money.